Special Guide 4
Stay
Ahead Of The Pack- Keep Yourself Updated At All Times
After reading our past
few Guides, your approach to betting should be vastly improved. You
should know by now how bookmakers earn their profits, and should
stick to singles rather than accumulators. You
should also now be used to shopping around for the best bookmakers
and odds available
for football matches, as well as comfortable with
using Betting Exchanges to ‘lock in a profit’ while
betting in-running.
This final guide is all
about researching your bets thoroughly; as that’s what football
betting is all about after all – picking winners.
You ought to stay abreast of the latest news before a game.
Here are some examples where keeping an eye
open on the latest news would
provide a profitable betting opportunity based solely on odds
changing (arbitrage).
Israel vs Austria
There was once a
World Cup Qualifying match where
Israel were at home to Austria and needed to win the
game in order to qualify. Austria only needed a draw from the game. Due to
possible security fears in Israel, nine Austrian
players refused to travel to Tel Aviv to play the game while one
other player was suspended.
With so many key players missing for
the game, obviously, Austria's
chances of winning looked very unlikely.
Before the news broke, bookmakers
originally priced up Israel at 11/10 to win but cut them
dramatically soon after to around 1/2. However, some firms remained
blissfully unaware of the events surrounding the game and left their
prices intact, hence leaving the following arbitrage opportunity for
punters:
Israel – £47.61 staked at 11/10
Draw – £28.57 staked at 5/2
Austria – £20 staked at 4/1
Here it is possible to have a guaranteed return of £100 for every £96.19 staked – a profit of 3.81%
regardless of the outcome!
Como vs Fiorentina
Fiorentina were facing
Como for the Coppa Italia tie
with their first-team line-up
in tatters– three players were injured, six were on international duty
and four had been dropped for having disagreements their manager.
The much weaken side due to participate
in the match were dubbed by the local newspaper as the “Fiorentina
Babies”. As you would expect, the Italian bookmakers were aware of
the events surrounding the match and quoted Como at a realistic odds
of
6/5 to win the game.
However, many other European boomakers
had no idea what was happening, and still priced Fiorentina up as
the match favourites, creating the following arbitrage
opportunity for punters:
Como – £29.85 staked at 2.35/1
Draw – £32.25 staked at 21/10
Fiorentina – £33.33 staked at 2/1
Here you could have guaranteed a
return of £100 for every £95.44 staked – a profit of 4.56%
regardless of the outcome!
Research, Research,
And More Research!
It is
advisable to do as much research yourself as possible to determine
what matches you are going to bet on.
Keeping yourself updated with the
latest news is one thing. You will need to look carefully into
statistics as well as you're looking to make profits from football
betting in the long run.
A wealth
of free statistical data and opinion is available on even the most
obscure leagues to help you make an informed choice.
Successful soccer betting are based on several factors,
including statistical analysis and situational trends. Motivational
and psychological factors, team news, roster changes, injuries,
suspensions and recent form are also important.
Here are some things to look out prior to betting:
-
Teams Recent Form
Look at the teams' recent form. By reading reports of both teams,
you can sometimes see for example if one of the
teams was unlucky in a previous match because the opposition
goalkeeper had a field day, or they lost because they lost a man
to a red card, etc.
-
Home and Away Records
Check for home and away statistics. Some teams never lose at home ground,
while some never win away. Also check if the game is a
local derby and if both teams share the same stadium, eg. Inter
Milan and AC Milan shares the San Siro stadium.
Hence, both teams will be pretty familiar with the ground
when playing each other, giving none the home advantage as
expected from a usual home team.
-
Head-to-Head Records
Check the history between the two clubs. The home and away
history is very important. There will be some teams that can
never beat another team year in year out, and you will be surprised
at how history repeats
itself in some games year after year.
-
Team News and Line-Ups
Make sure to always check for injuries and suspensions! Which
players are missing and how important are they. Two good
examples were mentioned earlier. If there are
injuries, check if it is a long-term injury, whether they have a
chance of making to the bench, etc. Be sure to
know who are their replacements, and how good they are.
-
Motivation of The
Players
You should also look at the table, especially as the season
draws to an end. Do not underestimate this factor. Motivation is a great factor for
all European
football teams. It is not rare to see a top level club being
humiliated by another team from the bottom. Ask yourself if a team needs points
for survival or the Championship? Is the team
more interested in playing European Cup football in mid-week? Is
the team interested in a particular domestic cup?
-
Team
Schedule
Check the teams' schedule. How many games have they played in
recent days? Would they be tired from all the travelling and
playing? Or, when are they playing
again? Is the next game more important than this one? Etc.
However, be aware of misleading articles from some sports news
providers or football forums. Bookmakers sometimes generate out the
wrong information on purpose to mislead punters, hence letting you
make the wrong decisions when you are betting. Do not fall into this
pit-hole! Others may claim to have insider tips with a 99% chance of
winning when in reality, it has a 99% chance of failing.
Always check and double-check what you have read to make sure you
are receiving the correct information.
You will not succeed in football betting by making assumptions and
betting via intuitions.
Get The “Inside
Edge”
Now here is the real deal. Having
read through so much, we hope you have more or less digested the information
we have for you into becoming a cleverer and better informed punter.
Are you tired of giving a sizeable chunk of your
income to your bookie every now and then? No clues at all as to
how to stop your losses or turn them into winnings?
Instead of feeling down about losing your
hard-earned money, wouldn't it be nice to have extra cash to indulge
your loved ones and yourself in holidays, a nicer car or a bigger
home? Would you like to be making extra cash from betting soccer
instead of it being a money wasting hobby?
