Special Guide 3
Betting
Exchanges
Betting Exchange is a
special kind of betting where you bet against other punters and not
against a bookmaker like you normally do. It works like a stock market
where the odds fluctuates accordingly to the changing supply
and demand.
As you would expect, the Betting Exchanges will charge a small fee in return for their services. Still, this nominal
percentage fee is still much lower than that of a regular
bookmaker's profit margin.
There are two terms used commonly in the Betting Exchanges:
-
Lay- Here, you
act as a bookmaker. You lay odds on an event you choose, hoping
that the team you lay odds on will LOSE.
-
Back- Here,
you act as a punter. You bet on an event for which others have
laid the odds. If the team you've backed on WINS, you will win
your stake multiplied with the odds that was offered minus a
certain percentage for the Betting Exchange company (eg. 5% from
Bet Fair).
Here, you will proceed
to learn how
to use a betting exchange to secure profits while football matches
are in play. This is possible using the “in running” betting facility.
The term "in running" means you can bet on the result of a football
game all the way till the 90th minute. The odds will constantly
fluctuate to reflect the current pattern of the match.
Locking in Profit
Via “In-Running”
With the ability now to
place bets whilst a football match is in progress, it is possible
to “lock in” a profit by exploiting arbitrage-type
situations present in the odds as the teams' chances of winning
change constantly throughout the game.
When “in-running”
betting was first introduced 10 years back, most bookmakers enforced a
cut off point about 10 minutes before full time. No bets will be
taken after the 80 minutes mark has passed. However, betting
exchanges are more lenient these days and will accept bets right up
until the final whistle. With this flexibility, risk
free bets have never been more readily available to punters.
For example, you could
back Newcastle to win the match before kick-off at odds of 6/4.
Newcastle
takes a 1-0 lead during the game and their odds were slashed down to 1/2. You
can now “lay” Newcastle (backing them NOT to win) and secure a
risk free profit hence. See below if you are confused:
You back Newcastle at 6/4 with
a £10 stake – £15 profit if they win.
Newcastle takes the lead,
odds on them winning drops drastically to 1/2.
Lay Newcastle at 1/2 with
your liability at £7.50 (amount you stand to lose if Newcastle
indeed wins) – £15 profit if
they don’t win.
There, you have now
secured a profit of £7.50 if Newcastle wins and £5.00 if they don’t – a
profit no matter what the result!
There will be a commission fee
involved should your winnings come from a betting exchange (between
1% to 5% depending on the exchange and
betting circumstances) so please remember to take this into
consideration when you are trying to secure risk free bets.
Betting Exchange
Systems
The ability to back and lay
selections has encouraged the development of “systems” that take
advantage of arbitrage betting situations. Two such systems are
described in details below but they should not be followed closely as over time,
they are likely to lose you money.
We would rather recommend that you
place your bets as per normal and then use a betting exchange to “lock in” a
profit should the opportunity arises.
Laying & Backing On A Draw
This system involves laying the draw
before kick off and then backing it at a higher price when the
favorites take the lead in the match. There are even others who may place a
covering bet on the 0-0 correct score.
While this system can produce
profits, there are instances which can wipe out several games
worth of profit in one fell swoop, such as:
1) The underdogs score the first
goal instead, and the odds for the draw does not go up
significantly. At times, it even
remains the same, hence preventing you from backing it and securing a profit.
If such a thing happens, then you will need to pray that the
underdogs score another goal to push up the draw odds or wait for them to
go up gradually as the match progresses.
2) An equalizing goal is scored
soon after one team takes the lead before the market is re-opened on
the
betting exchange. Hence, you are denied the chance to back on the draw at
a higher price. If this happens, you will need to pray for a third goal
in order to rescue
your earlier bets or trade out at a loss to minimize the overall amount of
money lost
Laying the Leader
This system involves laying on the team
who had just taken the lead during a match immediately after the
market has re-opened. If the opposition equalised, you could then back
the team you originally laid on at higher odds, thus securing a
profit.
The obvious flaw with this system is
that if the opposition does not score an equaliser or if the team
you had
originally laid go on goes on to increase their lead, you
will again be forced to trade out at a loss.
Cheating
The System
Betting in-running is a great way to
secure no-risk profits and you can also bet on other
markets such as “Over / Under 2.5 goals” and “Next Goal Scorer”.
Now, you may be thinking the
"In-Running" provides you with an excellent opportunity to try and “cheat” the system by
either placing a bet on a
team who has just scored a goal or after the final whistle has been blown.
Unfortunately, there are measures in place to prevent you from doing
so. Moderators will suspend the market when a goal has been scored,
a free kick or penalty awarded or a player sent off. Very rarely
would you chance upon an opportunity that you can exploit the
system.
It is common that there will usually
be a delay of around 10 to 20 seconds when you place an "In-running" bet.
This delay will enable the moderators to suspend the market (and
subsequently cancel your bet) if one of the above mentioned
incidents took place. Hence, there is absolutely no way you can
attempt to cheat the system.
Setting “Trap
Bets” For The Unwary
A
“trap bet” involves somebody who is watching a live telecasted game
putting up a bet with the Betting Exchanges immediately after a goal has been scored.
The trap setter will put up a bet which
is the direct opposite of what he has just seen. For example
offering Inter Milan to win the match against Juventus at massive odds-on if Inter Milan has just gone ahead.
The person who has offered this bet
is hoping someone will take the offer up- perhaps someone who is
ignorant of what is happening in the game and following the match purely
by looking at the odds on the exchange. The victim will be fooled into
thinking that the bets on offer reflects the way the match is
running. With massive odds on offer for Inter Milan, the victim
would think that perhaps Inter Milan has just gone a man down,
or playing so poorly against Juventus that the shot up. He will then
place his bets on Juventus, thinking that this is a 'sure-win'
situation for Juventus. But in reality, Inter Milan has already
taken the lead.
The message boards of the Betting
Exchanges report horror
stories of someone squandering thousands of pounds on odds of 1.01, thinking
that there were “buying” a few pounds of easy money. But
in reality they are just handing their money over to an unethical
trap setter.
