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Special Guide 1
When you are betting soccer, like all things in life, it is
important to define a goal and work towards it. If you start
reckless betting without an aim, you will most likely end up nowhere
and are doomed to fail. Remember, when you start to place bets, it
is very possible that you will become addicted in the long term.
This will however not likely to happen if you have a specific goal
in mind.
When you reached your goal, cash in! Do not be greedy. If you set
your goal on winning $1000 from a $100 capital in a month, then
withdraw your winnings and leave $100 for next month to start all
over again!
Some people bet on sports as an investment; to make a living. Others
do it purely for the sake of leisure. You must know where you stand.
Fact is, there will never
be a poor bookmaker.
On the contrary, most punters end up as losers.
The reasons why the
bookmakers are so successful is that:
-
There are punters who
bet blindly and haven’t thought their selections through
carefully
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There are punters who are
chasing losses and betting heavily on unlikely ‘long shots’ or short-priced ‘sure
win bets’ that subsequently lose.
Only a very small number of punters ever make a profit from betting
but fret not, we are here to help. Read carefully every guide we
have here, take time to digest and maybe consider joining our
coaching program. You are about to become a winner under our
guidance.
Sports-betting is like a form of investment for us, an alternative
to playing the stock exchange. It is built on a solid theoretical
basis as well as tried and tested methods. You will only profit from
joining us.
Join me and my team
today to start making profits from football betting!
  
Now back to the Guide proper. If you are to become a
winner then you need to start focusing on your bets properly. This
means concentrating on say, just one sport, e.g. football, or
dramatically reducing the number of bets you place daily.
Do not be misled that if you throw enough mud on the wall then some
of it will stick. It is a very bad strategy for betting and is a sure
fire way to hand over your hard earned money to your bookmakers.
This Special Guide 1 is an eye opener to show you how bookmakers
make their money. It also outlines some of the best practices that you should
follow. While these practices will not guarantee success on
their own, at the very least they should limit your losses driven by
reckless gambling.
The second part of the guide identifies some of the ‘bad habits’
most gamblers commit so be sure to avoid them if you want to be a
winner.
How Bookies Make Their Dough
To illustrate, we shall use an example from the
Spanish La Liga, Real
Madrid vs Barcelona. Bookmakers will expect that public opinion will
be divided equally, due to the teams being equally matched. Let's
presume they
predict that half of all the money wagered on this match will be on
“Madrid - 0.5 ball” and the other half will be staked on
“Barcelona + 0.5 ball ”. Based on this fact (they can never be sure
but more often than not, they are likely to be very close in their estimations) they should set
the odds in a way which will allow them to make an equal amount of
profit regardless of the final result of this match. How to do it?
They will set 'fair
odds' which reflects the 50/50 distribution. The common formula
they use would be “100 / expectation”. Hence, it is 100 / 50 = 2 . Odds of
2.00 - 2.00 are what we call 'fair odds'. The 'overound' has not been applied
yet - in this case both a punter and bookmaker would finish with $0
profit if money was distributed as expected (50/50).
They must now decide how big a profit margin they want to
set. It varies throughout the various betting houses but in general,
the minimum we have seen is 2%, to as high as 40%. There are some
key information which are worth taking note of:
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The more outcomes for an event, a bigger overound will
generally be applied. The best bet from a punter’s point of view are 2-way
bets, like the Under/Over Total Goals or Asian Handicap. You can
generally grab even odds of 1.98-1.98 offers in major European
leagues. In this case, a bookmaker earns as little as one dollar from every
$100 wagered.
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The bigger the prestige of a league, the lower will be the overound. It is
no longer a kept secret that the 1x2 fixed market on the English
Premiership, Spanish La Liga and other major leagues hovers
around the 8%-9% range while games on say the Slovakian league
have as big as 12% overound. Why is this so? The answer is
simple: competition. The more exotic the league, the lesser the
number of bookmakers offering odds on it. Equipped with this
fact, the
bookmakers will look to maximize their profits by setting bigger
margins or overounds.
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The worst kind of bet for a punter would be those special and
outright bets. Our advice to you would be to avoid this kind of
bets altogether. Examples of such bets are “First Goal
Scorer”, “To Win World Cup”, “Exact Scores”, "Manager Sack
Race", etc. Many a times, the odds might look really
tempting but, believe me– in the long run, it is close to
impossible to beat the 40% overound.
Looking back at our example for the match between
Real Madrid and Barcelona, say a bookmaker decides to earn a 5%
margin from the outcome. He offers 1.90 on “0ver 2.5 Goals” and 1.90 on “under 2.5
Goals”.
If his predictions were right again(50/50 distribution), and there were $10,000 wagered
equally on “Over” and “Under”, then no matter what the outcome, he
will have to pay the winning side $5000X1.90 = $9500 cashing-in on
$500 (notice that $500 is 5% of $10,000). Nowadays, the football
market is so saturated and competitive that punters can easily find
1.92 / 1.92 (4% house edge) for any 2 way event.
If odds have built-in house edge, you might ask:
"Then how are we going to beat the bookie?" Well, you must remember
that this fictitious distribution of 50/50 is only an estimation
and illustration made by a human like you and me. If you are capable of
constantly spotting the
bookmakers' error in judgement for games, then you are on your way to be
winning in the long term.
Leave the spotting and thinking to us! We'll show you exactly how to
start making profits from football betting!
SINGLES VS ACCUMULATORS
When you bet on singles, you are predicting the
outcome for only one game. When the game ends, you would know
whether if you have won or lost. In accumulators, you have more
games on your betting slip now. And the outcomes of all these games
must match your bets in order for you to win money. It is not as
easy feat to put it mildly.
By betting on accumulators you increase the
bookmakers' overound by lowering winning chances
significantly. Again, many punters fall into the trap of betting on
accumulators simply because there is a possibility to earn lots of
money with the huge odds on display. Whereas with singles you have
to place big stakes in order to win big, with accumulators, there is
a possibility that one can win thousands of dollars with just a $1
stake.
Let's look at the following example. A bookmaker has just set the
lines for two games, namely: Arsenal vs AC Milan and Barcelona vs Stuttgart. They
decided to offer 1.90-3.25-3.65 on the first game and 2.20-3.15-3.00 on
the second. After making some calculations and
deducting off the overound, you can see that the above odds roughly
translates to
probabilities of
49%-27%-24% and 42%-28%-30%
respectively.
|
Arsenal |
Draw A |
Milan |
|
1.90
|
3.25
|
3.65 |
|
0.49
|
0.27
|
0.24 |
|
0.93
|
0.87
|
0.87 |
|
|
Barcelona |
Draw B
|
Stuttgart |
|
2.20 |
3.15
|
3.00 |
|
0.42
|
0.28
|
0.30 |
|
0.92
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0.88
|
0.90 |
|
The tables above show you how much a bookmaker
expect you to lose. The lower the odds, the smaller the overound.
By putting your bets into doubles you'll expect to receive the
following hit rate expectations:
|
|
Barcelona |
Draw B
|
Stuttgart |
|
Arsenal
|
0.21
|
0.14
|
0.15 |
|
Draw A
|
0.11
|
0.08
|
0.08 |
|
Milan |
0.10
|
0.07
|
0.07 |
As you can see, it is hardly surprising that a double containing
two underdogs (Stuttgart 30% and Milan 24%) has the least
probability of winning (7%).
Comparing the above results with the possible payouts:
|
|
Barcelona |
Draw B
|
Stuttgart |
|
Arsenal
|
4.18
|
5.99
|
5.70 |
|
Draw A
|
7.15
|
10.24
|
9.75 |
|
Milan |
8.03 |
11.50 |
10.95 |
|
|
Barcelona |
Draw B
|
Stuttgart |
|
Arsenal
|
0.86
|
0.82
|
0.84 |
|
Draw A
|
0.81
|
0.77
|
0.79 |
|
Milan |
0.81
|
0.77
|
0.79 |
With reference to the above table, you can see
that with singles a bookmaker expects to pay out on
average only 89.8% of the total amount wagered. In order words, he is
going to earn $10.2 of every $100 wagered.
The top bottom table shows you how his earning expectation changes
when punters decide to pair the events into doubles.
The average of these numbers is 81% - this time a bookmaker earns
$19 on every $100 wagered. It is close to 2 times profit for
him as compared to when punters bet on singles.
For three-folds events, we've looked into it but in order not to
confuse you with the numbers, it appears that the bookmaker's
earning expectation is
as much as $29 from every $100 wagered. You can only imagine how
difficult it is to win a 8 or 9 fold accumulator.
Still looking for the best value? Join us and
we'll show you exactly what to bet and what not to bet!
Best Practices to
Follow When Betting
1) Do Careful Research
Needless to say, the key to successful betting is to put in the time
and effort to research your bets carefully before placing your bets.
Read into injury lists, form statistics, past records, etc. Maybe,
you are betting on a local derby but you are not even aware of it.
For example, even if on paper, Liverpool has a better squad squad
than Everton, you should know that they are city rivals, and that
both sets of players on the field would rather die then lose the
derby game against one another. Or maybe, you've got tradition going against you (example Team A has
never beaten Team B at home). Though
this is time consuming and boring, but if you are not
going to research carefully what you are going to stake your
hard-earned money on, then you really shouldn’t be betting
at all in the first place.
2) Set Aside A Gambling ‘Budget’
A good money management is perhaps the most important element for
success. You should set aside a maximum amount of money you are prepared to
lose a month and if that amount is reached you should stop betting
altogether until the following month.
Once you have derived at the monthly figure, it should be further
divided up into a weekly and daily budget. This will prevent you
from exhausting your money too quickly.
This is especially so when one is trying to
claw back a loss.
By giving yourself a pre-set amount of money to gamble with every
month, you are immediately in control of your finances. Losing will
not become a problem, but just an expense you have
already budgeted for. A key point to remember is never borrow money
to bet! Do not bet beyond your means!
3) Withdraw
Your Winnings Before Proceeding
Rather than placing more bets or
increasing your stake amount
to try
and increase your bank further during a winning run, it is
often a good
idea to withdraw at least some of your winnings back into your bank
account so that you can enjoy the fruits of your labour. This will
also prevent you from losing them all back to the bookmakers.
4) Take A Step
Back Occasionally
It is always advisable to take a break at some point while gambling
in order to allow you to clear your head properly. This will allow
you to see the bigger picture. A series of winning bets can lull you
into a false sense of invincibility and similarly, the distress
caused by an extended losing streak warrants some time out rather
than betting with your gut feelings in order to recoup some of your
losses.
Similarly, if you are experiencing a
winning run, do not get carried away and place bets you normally
wouldn’t usually make. It is important not to be greedy. If you do,
then you are likely to hand over some (if not ALL) of your hard
earned winnings back to the bookmakers.
5) Summary
In order to be
successful in betting, one must be patient, has a budget set, a
rational staking plan in place and know when to call it a day.
Join me and my team
today to start making profits from football betting!
Bad Habits When Betting
1) Chasing Your Losses
This is the most common bad habit
that most gamblers commit. And is the one number 1 killer for most
punters.
Nobody can be right all the time. When you start to incur a loss, it
is vitally important that you maintain your discipline and save your
betting money for the right opportunities. By setting yourself a
‘Daily Stop Loss’ amount, you will ensure you don’t lose all your
betting money in a single day from placing desperate, irrational
bets.
Dumping all of your money onto a game with ridiculously short odds
thinking that it's a banker bet will often get you into bigger
trouble. Let's not look too far back. On 18/9/2007, Chelsea were
heavily fancied against Rosenborg while playing at home, with odds
as low as $1.02. The 1-1 full time draw means bookmakers laugh all
the way to the bank.
It is advisable to try and claw back your losses slowly with a
series of sensible, well-researched bets.
A common belief that a run of, say, 7 lost games
in a row is impossible or avoidable if a proper bet selection is
applied is wrong. In general how one is affected by a bad run of
results depends on how experienced and educated an investor is:
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Punters who know nothing about long losing streaks or have never
experience one before panic when struck by one. They tend to
chase up their loses which is considered one of the most common
reasons for punters' bankruptcy. Even if they are reasonable
enough to refrain from going for this most dangerous example of
hopeless money management, their everyday lives are ruined by
the depression caused by the feeling of failure.
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On the contrary, those educated about unavoidability of losing
streaks take them as something usual- an inseparable attribute
of sports betting. They continue to bet unaffected by the bad
run because they have confidence in their bet selection methods
and know that they will win in the end.
The difference between the two above approaches is
what separates winners from the rest of bettors society. It is
therefore of vital importance to be educated in this field.
2) Changing Your Staking Plan
On the flipside to chasing your losses, another dangerous tactic is
to increase your stakes when you win. The only thing you will
achieve by doing this is that it won’t take as many losers to wipe
out your gambling pot when you hit a bad run.
If you start winning, do not raise your stakes immediately and take
irrational risks.
If you have experienced a profitable previous month
you may be able to set a slightly larger pot and increase your
staking levels by a small amount, but this should only be done after
some of the money has been withdrawn into your bank account.
3) Betting At Poor Odds
When is a winning bet a bad bet? When you are not placing the bet at
the best odds available. The difference between the odds offered by
bookmakers and betting exchanges can be as much as 20% to 50% in
some cases - a substantial difference in potential profits.
If you are not getting the best odds and therefore, the best return
on your investment, then you will need more winning bets to make the
amount of profit.
Value-betting it is the most
important and most misunderstood concept in sports-betting. Apart
from bad money management, there is no single factor of which
misunderstanding can do a bigger harm to a punter.
In general, we can define “Valuebet” as ‘a bet
having positive expectation’ . It means that, in our opinion, an
outcome has bigger chances to win than bookmakers suggest by their
odds. When you bet on value, you don't pay attention to
criteria like league table, form, history, injuries, etc. The
"normal" way of betting is first finding an object you believe in,
then check if the odds is allright. Valuebetting requires another
way of thinking. In fact, valuebetting is the opposite of
conventional betting. It's not about picking objects, but picking
odds! This means that you don't necessarily have to believe in
the team you put your money on. As long as the odds presented are
better than the strictly mathematical chance your team has of
winning the game, it's a valuebet.
So what is a value bet? If you think a team has got 50 % chance
of winning the game, odds above 2.0 represents value. Objects with
good value are objects which will give you a positive payoff over
time.
So if Sheff. Wed has got 10.0 for a win at
Old Trafford, it is a valuebet if you think Wednesday will win more
than 1 out of 10 similar games.
The formula for finding an objects value is:
ODDS * Percentage
---------------------
> = 1.0
100
Percentage is your subjective opinion on the
object's chance of winning the event. If the result of the above
calculation is a number greater than 1.0 the bet is a value bet. If
it's below 1.0 it's not a valuebet, but it can of course still be a
good bet.
How do you know when you have taken up a value
bet? One way is to observe how odds fluctuate after you taken them.
If it had been 2.35 when you had taken it, then went down to 1.75
before kickoff, you might be sure you took a valuebet. And you
should not bother with the results of the game. Your team may lose
this game and it does not make any difference - your bet was ok. It
was luck what caused it was lost.
In a long term luck does not
play any role. If you place bets with positive expectation, you will
be in plus after 500 bets for sure. The key is to have patience to
be able to find it out.
Sometimes, there is an exception
where public opinion is not right. But in general you will beat a
bookmaker if your odds drop before the game.
If you happen to meet any person
who claim to be professional gambler and live off betting, and he
disagrees to what has been written here, he is either a liar or he
is just on lucky streak. I can guarantee it.
4) Betting Only On Well Known Teams
Big favourites are rarely good objects for valuebets, due to the
bookies' fear for large payouts if the favourites should win. Big
names like Man Utd, Juventus, Inter, Milan, Barcelona, Bayern
Munich, are rarely given good prices by the bookies, because the
bookies know that the common punter bet on the big names (as they
often seem to win their games, and they have a huge following).
As a result of the above, real value is often found in the form
of underdogs. The bookies know that punters are more likely to bet
on favourites, and therefore prices are generally higher on
underdogs.
Patience is the key to success when betting on value. Do not
alter your strategy if you loose several times in a row. The point
is that when you win, your net winnings will outweigh your total
losses.
It is not advisable to bet solely on a team due to past or even
current reputation, such as “Real Madrid are the ‘best’ team in
Spain, therefore they will win” or “I have never heard of the
Manchester United’s opponents, they must be rubbish” without doing
some proper research first.
In these cases, the
‘big guns’ are often short-priced at unfavourable odds of 1/4 or
less. Just because the odds are exceptionally short, it doesn’t mean
they are guaranteed to win. The prospect of ‘buying money’ can tempt
unwary gamblers into losing a large chunk, if not all, of their
betting pot in one go. Probability is that you might win 7 or 8
times out of 10, but when you lose, you give everything back to the
bookies.
There is no theory as a 100% sure win bet. Please
refrain from believing into sources claiming that it is a sure win
tips. Bear in mind that there is always a percentage of chance going
either way.
5) Poor Value Bets
The bookmakers are experts in devising new and interesting markets
for you to bet on and tempt you into placing bets which offer
massive returns for minimum stakes. Placing a 10-team accumulator
featuring football teams at odds-on may appear a sure fire way to
success but, apart from very rare occasions, one or more of these
‘good things’ will let you down, rendering your bet a loser.
Other bets such as correct scores,
total goals and first and last goalscorers are generally poor value
and should be avoided.
It is far better to keep a keen eye out for good value bets rather
than desperately looking for something to stake your money on.
If you must make a combination bet, it is better to stick to
doubles, trebles at most and limit yourself to staking pennies
rather than pounds on the more speculative multi-team accumulators.
6) Betting On 'Hear-Say'
This usually happens when you are chasing your losses or betting on
a ‘hot tip’ recommendation from a trustworthy football buddy who’s
‘into the game’. If you don’t understand a sport or bet and haven’t
researched it yourself then you are far more likely to lose your
money.
Join us today and my team and I will show you
exactly how you can learn to research and start making profits from
football betting!
7) Betting What You Can’t Afford To Lose
No bet is ‘guaranteed’ to win, no matter how short the odds or how
many hours you put in as research. You should prepare yourself that
every bet you make is a potential loser and you should never make
bets with money you cannot afford to lose.
Never borrow money to bet!
Remember, winners exercise SELF CONTROL.
Always stay calm and never act impulsively.
Strategie Roulette
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